Breakout and pullback conditions for
setups.
Before a stock or currency pair makes
our breakout “watchlist,” it must satisfy two key criteria:
Stock or currency pair must be in
uptrend
Stock or currency pair must have a
valid basing configuration pattern.
How define an up trend (for down
trend reverse conditions).
20‐day EMA must be trading at or near the 50‐day MA when the stock is forming a base and clearly above the 50‐day MA when in trend
mode. For pullback trades, the 20‐day EMA must be above the 50‐day
MA.
-20‐day EMA must be above the 200‐day MA
-
50‐day MA must be above the 200‐day MA
-Both the 50 and 200‐day MAs must be in a clear uptrend for at least a
few months.
-
The price action should be in an uptrend with a series of higher
highs
and higher lows in place over the past 3 ‐
6 months (at the very least).
-
Current price should at least be 30 ‐
40% above the 52‐week low
Trend qualifier –
rules for breakout setups in the picures the examples.rules for breakout setups |
rules for breakout setups |
rules for breakout setups |
Valid basing pattern
for breakout entry
- A base (or zone of
congestion) is anywhere from 1 month to 1 year in length. For our
style of trading, we prefer bases that form in a 1 - 3 month period
that find and hold support of the 50-day
MA.
-We want to see “tight”
price action in the base, especially during the last two weeks before
the breakout.
-A valid base should
pullback anywhere from 10 - 30% off the swing high. Once a stock
retraces 40 - 50% or more, we begin to question the strength of the
uptrend.
We must see a “higher
low” form within the base. This is crucial to the pattern. Without
a higher low forming, we have no way to set a stop and therefore can
not define the risk.
- Volume should be
declining during a base, or at the very least, not heavier than
average. If there are too many days of heavy volume selling in a
base, the base could be faulty.
Main characteristics of a valid base |
Main characteristics of a valid base |
Breakout Entry the trigger |
Breakout Entry |
A pullback setup
occurs when a stock breaks out from a valid basing pattern and then
pulls back for 3 – 7 days:
Pullback setup |
Pullback Setup |
Pullback setup step by step |
Reference Deron Wagner
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