Trading on the future EUR/USD

This type of strategy is valid mainly for a type of limit operations of bite-and-run, though sometimes and possibly working with multiple contracts, could be it is interesting to adopt an adaptive trailing stop tactic on the part of the position or, alternatively, with one the smallest part of it, an ambitious goal to close those positions that benefit from a strong one directional trend and, in case it is not reached, adopt the typical trend-following strategy based on stop and reverse. In practice and only if I can work with a fair number of contracts:
good part I close them with the scalping and / op short release techniques, a smaller part with a trailing stop pretty aggressively and a marginal part is left to market to try to exploit
moves decided in a favorable direction.
However, in this article, it is necessary to keep in mind that both the information is small and the superficiality with which the subject is addressed do not allow detailed explanation of all sub-strategies just mentioned, which is why it is necessary to keep in mind that the operation is essentially of speculative type such as intraday scalping.
The basis of the methodology, which in this case works on 15-minute charts (but it may be valid
even on the 5 and 30 minutes, in my opinion) has as a reference tool a triple moving average and it
fast stochastic; the reference parameters are as follows:
- mobile medium of short to 10, intermediate mobile medium to 20 and mobile medium of up to 50 periods;
- Fast stochastic at 14 periods (30 and 70 over-estimated and over-bought).
As it is easy to guess the parameters adopted are nothing but classics, statistically the most
frequently adopted; this does not detract from the fact that anyone can adapt them as best he believes on his own information and / or experience, or to make the operation more / less aggressive (example, also classic, for mobile averages would be 4-18-40 or 9-18-34 and so on, or
increase / decrease the overcrowded and over-estimated stochastic or change its time parameter to 10 or 20 etc.).
Let's see a graphic example:
Trading on the future EUR/USD















Compared to the normal strategies here, the intersection between two or three mobile media is marginal or at least considered:
only the first case, in fact, only if no other exit technique is adopted may be useful
to close the position, nothing to find, at utility level, for the second condition (intersection
triple). Let's see the use of averages:
- the main aspect is tied, unlike usual, to the longest median inclination, condition
necessary to activate the signals for the possible operation. Again in this case, as well as for
the parameters will be the aptitude or not the most / less speculative and aggressive trading to determine how mobile media should be inclined: personally I find it interesting to work with
a slope above 20/25 degrees, positively or negatively inclined, of course, to
depending on whether you are working for long or short income entries. As can be seen from the graph above, in fact, the blue dots indicate the moment from which the inclination of the affected media begins to be on the expected levels and therefore with a higher grade than the minimum valid for operation (long in this case); And in fact, right from that moment on, the trader's attention
should be aimed at identifying the valid operating set-up. Here is the use of the others two mediums.
- There is a need to wait for the price pull back next to the other two averages - to say the truth
mainly on the fastest medium. Once the price has relied on the average, in fact, the first part of the set-up is completed and the 15-minute bar will indicate, above the maximum, the potential breakout level needed to get the long position. Personally I decided to take the break over the top but, in reality, the most aggressive trader could quietly opt for market entry or, alternatively, one or two pips above the bar closure level:
you will do some extra operation, you will take a few more stops (generally to all parameters)
respecting the increase in stoploss is limited) but each operation will be saved one-two
eight to ten pips in limit cases, so any major breaks would be covered). It's important
consider that if the closing price of the bar in question was below (long) or above
(short) both moving mediums (short and intermediate) the set-up is canceled or postponed to
the next one, if the parameters are respected. The same thing for the exit from the market: one of the possibilities, in fact, is just related to the closing on (short) or below
(Long) both lower moving averages. Then touch the filter.
- The stochastic serves just what filter for entry into the position and also, at a later time,
for emergency exit if the targets have not already been met. In fact, it will be necessary
wait, if it is not already, that the oscillator is overcrowded to enter long or in
overwhelmed to enter short. And this is not a mistake, clearly: in spite of how much you are
aspects as a traditional assumption, we in this case do not act against the main trend
(supposed) but in his favor. In fact, being very short or scalping, we are interested in it
take as many points as possible or tick or pips as you want and, generally,  the best way is to follow the flow of money: if we are over-packed it's because in that moment the operators are buying (vice versa for sales), which means they could it turns out to be profitable to enter where the money flows. I repeat: we are not interested in staying in position, as a basic concept for a long time, but to bring home a profit with the least possible risk in relation to timing and market prices. It goes without saying that the same stochastic will indicate the eventuality exit from the market, stop loss or stop profit, possibly: a return of the oscillator values within the intermediate band 30-70 (or others, depending on the trader's personal preferences) it will require the output with the closing of the position (also in this case at stop with required break or a market). Also to assess, personally, the opportunity to go out in advance if the oscillator formed a clear divergence against the main trend and thus against our position.
Here are some examples:
Trading on the future EUR/USD


Trading on the future EUR/USD


Trading on the future EUR/USD

So the strategy is very simple to implement once you set up charts and analytical tools; the problem
the main focus is the attention of the trader and his willingness to work on the market for the most
part of the sitting. Some motivation: the wait for a minimum inclination of the moving average longer makes it better operation, not necessarily on the end result, but on the times of profit and the impact of the stoploss on performance. It also allows to avoid excessive lateral situations (just by effect of inclination) and an excess of conflicting signals (avoidable, at least in part, using the average a Long and no crossroads).
Stochastic, used in an unconventional way (except for early releases on any divergence confirmed), it is useful because it shows the strength / weakness of the market; is also one of the motives (the main, probably) so I think this methodology is useful rather than operational
fast and scalping: in fact, the situations in which a stochastic in overcrowded or hypervedued coincides with the determined continuation (at least in the first instance) of the fundamental movement, reason so its utility is exclusively to try to exploit the timing of entry into speed and direction. Finally, it is evident from the charts as in fact you can only take a limited part of each trend directional; in spite of that, if you want to notice it in the examples and studies you may want to do, the speed at which you can profit each time is in the highest level of excellence.
Hoping that this article can be a good starting point for those who want to operate on our currency's future referring to personal checks and supplementary / additional studies any other consideration.
PS: in my opinion it is a more or less specific technique for this market: use it on stock futures or bonds could give many more problems, but that does not mean that personal experiments can be made and check it out personally.


Article translated by italian with Google translate.

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